The league phase of the 2025/26 Champions League has come to a close with the final matchday providing plenty of post-match talking points – no more than Benfica goalkeeper Anatoliy Trubin scoring in the 98th minute of their 4-2 win over Real Madrid.
Eight teams have automatically secured passage into the Round of 16 and another eight teams will secure a place in the knockout rounds following a series of playoff encounters.
With anticipation building over the final 24 clubs battling it out to win the trophy, the Opta supercomputer has predicted who is most likely to win the tournament after 10,000 simulations.
Paris Saint-Germain are the holders, with Luis Enrique’s men stunning 5-0 win over Inter Milan back in June giving them the trophy for the first time, and they’ll be battling to do so again this time around. However, they aren’t predicted to win the trophy – and GIVEMESPORT tells you who the favourites are, as well as the outside chancers.
Supercomputer Predicts 2025-26 Champions League Winners Odds: 24-21
There are some huge teams who haven’t even made the cut for the top 20 most likely teams to win the tournament by virtue of crashing out at the earliest competition: Dutch giants Ajax are naturally a massive club, as are Bundesliga outfit Eintracht Frankfurt and Kevin De Bruyne-led Napoli, who are managed by Antonio Conte.
Qarabag, despite their 6-0 loss to Liverpool on the final matchday of the league phase, have been the competition’s surprise package this term – and they bagged themselves a spot in the playoffs. Winning the lot is off the cards, though, according to Opta’s supercomputer.
AS Monaco – who last reached the final in 2004, where they lost 3-0 to FC Porto – are the first side to be given a chance, albeit very slim, of holding the big-eared trophy aloft come the end of May in Budapest, Hungary.
Managed by Sebastien Pocognoli, Monaco have been issued a 0.01% chance of going the entire way in the competition and that is just short of Bodo/Glimt’s chances. The Norwegian side shocked the world by beating Pep Guardiola’s side 3-1 in January but are unlikely to find joy of a similar note moving forward. Rounding off this category are Olympiacos, who have been issued a 0.10% chance of reigning triumphant.
Supercomputer Predicts 2025-26 Champions League Winners Odds: 24-21
Rank
Team
Chance of Winning (%)
24.
Qarabag
0.00%
23.
AS Monaco
0.01%
22.
Bodo/Glimt
0.03%
21.
Olympiacos
0.10%
Supercomputer Predicts 2025-26 Champions League Winners Odds: 20-16
Turkish outfit Galatasaray – spearheaded by one of the best strikers in world football, Victor Osimhen – are just ahead of Olympiacos with a 0.11% chance of going all the way. The Nigerian striker’s potency fired them to a 20th-place finish in the league phase and will now face a playoff encounter to secure passage into the knockout rounds.
Club Brugge are arguably the biggest surprise in this category. The Belgian outfit endured tough away trips to Atalanta, Bayern Munich and Sporting, as well as home clashes against Monaco, Barcelona, Arsenal and Marseille – but they won three matches and bagged a playoff spot. In going all the way (0.13%), they’d become the first club in Belgium to win the tournament after losing the 1978 final vs Liverpool.
Atalanta are next in 18th, being ranked at having just a 0.36% chance of winning the Champions League, with the furthest they have gone being the quarter-finals in 2019/20.
Bayer Leverkusen picked up 12 points from their eight matches in the league phase but don’t have much hope of reaching the latter stages of the competition, hence their 0.32% chance of winning the lot.
Benfica secured a playoff spot by the skin of their teeth but Jose Mourinho, as evidenced by previous spells, is a serial winner on the European stage. Anything is possible with the Portuguese at the helm and his men have been given a 0494% chance of accruing their first European title since 1962 –when they beat Real Madrid the year after defeating another Spanish giant in Barcelona.
Supercomputer Predicts 2025-26 Champions League Winners Odds: 20-16
Rank
Team
Chance of Winning (%)
20.
Galatasaray
0.11%
19.
Club Brugge
0.13%
18.
Atalanta
0.36%
17.
Bayer Leverkusen
0.41%
16.
Benfica
0.49%
Supercomputer Predicts 2025-26 Champions League Winners Odds: 15-11
Bundesliga outfit Borussia Dortmund (0.51%) are 15tg favourites, having last reached the final in 2024 when they lost 2-0 to Real Madrid.
Atletico Madrid have yet to win the Champions League and that is very likely to continue. They have a 0.78% chance of winning the accolade.
Italian side and two-time winners Juventus have improved of late and their 0.89% chance of becoming the champions of Europe is probably fair.
Premier League outfit Tottenham Hotspur hadn’t won a major honour in 17 years before their Europa League win last season, but continental success last time out and a flurry of summer signings has given them a 1.98% chance of winning the lot.
Sporting CP, despite losing Ruben Amorim and Viktor Gyokeres in recent years, are flying the Portugal flag high in Europe this term – and they managed to finish inside the top eight of the league phase after five wins from their eight matches. Going all the way could prove a challenge, but they’ve still been offered a 2.04% chance of doing so.
Supercomputer Predicts 2025-26 Champions League Winners Odds: 15-11
Rank
Team
Chance of Winning (%)
15.
Borussia Dortmund
0.63%
14.
Atletico Madrid
0.78%
13.
Juventus
0.89%
12.
Tottenham Hotspur
1.98%
11.
Sporting CP
2.04%
Supercomputer Predicts 2025-26 Champions League Winners Odds: 10-6
Real Madrid have just a 2.34% chance of winning the lot this campaign – which may initially come as a surprise by virtue of their success on the continental stage.
Xabi Alonso’s departure, with the manager being replaced by Alvaro Arbeola, has rocked the boat, and they’ve struggled to emulate their form of previous seasons.
Newcastle United (3.19%) are given a bigger chance than some massive European clubs, including Real Madrid, despite the Magpies finishing outside the automatic progression spots. They’re followed by last season’s beaten finalists, Inter Milan, who could replicate their success from previous seasons.
Last season’s winners Paris Saint-Germain (who recorded a record-breaking 5-0 win over Inter) are all the way down in seventh, having been given a 4.48% chance of winning the title – though the talent at the disposal of Luis Enrique means that anything is possible and the French club going back-to-back is very possible.
Last season’s semi-finalists, Barcelona, just miss out on a spot in the top five. They’ve been given a 7.01% chance of winning the trophy after missing out narrowly last season. As one of the best teams in world football, Lamine Yamal and company have every chance of breaking the trend and winning the lot, of course.
Supercomputer Predicts 2025-26 Champions League Winners Odds: 10-6
Rank
Team
Chance of Winning (%)
10.
Real Madrid
2.34%
9.
Newcastle United
3.50%
8.
Inter Milan
3.93%
7.
Paris Saint-Germain
4.48%
6.
Barcelona
5.84%
Supercomputer Predicts 2025-26 Champions League Winners Odds: 5-1
Following their Europa Conference League success last term and their Club World Cup triumph in the summer, Chelsea are fifth and Liam Rosenior’s men have a 7.16% of winning the tournament.
Arne Slot’s Liverpool, were knocked out by PSG last season in the round of 16, have struggled in the Premier League this season, but their strong showing in Europe so far means they have a 9.39% chance of reigning victorious.
Pep Guardiola’s Manchester City side are in third as they chase the trophy two years on from their triumph in Istanbul. They are followed by Bayern Munich – a team who finished second in the league phase thanks to Harry Kane’s firepower up top and Lennant Karl’s teenage brilliance behind him.
That leaves Mikel Arteta’s Arsenal side at the top of the tree, with the Opta supercomputer seeing them win the trophy in many of its simulations as the Gunners aim to end their half-decade wait without silverware. The Gunners became the 13th team in Champions League history to end the group stage/league phase with a flawless record and Opta believes they have a 29.18% of winning their first-ever title in Europe.
Supercomputer Predicts 2025-26 Champions League Winners Odds: 5-1
Rank
Team
Chance of Winning
5.
Chelsea
7.16%
4.
Liverpool
9.39%
3.
Manchester City
11.65%
2.
Bayern Munich
14.67%
1.
Arsenal
29.18%
All data per Opta’s supecomputer – correct as of 17/02/2026