The league phase of the 2025/26 Champions League, and the subsequent knockout playoffs, have concluded with the latest round of fixtures providing plenty of post-match talking points – no more than Bodo/Glimt stunning Inter Milan with a 5-2 win on aggregate.
With anticipation now building over the final 16 clubs battling it out to win the trophy, the Opta supercomputer has predicted who is most likely to win the tournament after 10,000 simulations following the completion of the Round of 16 first legs, which also provided a fair bit of drama.
Paris Saint-Germain are the holders, with Luis Enrique’s men’s stunning 5-0 win over Inter Milan back in June giving them the trophy for the first time, and they’ll be battling to do so again this time around. However, they aren’t predicted to win the trophy – and GIVEMESPORT tells you who the favourites are, as well as the outside chancers.
Supercomputer Predicts 2025-26 Champions League Winners Odds: 16-11
There are some huge teams that haven’t even made the cut for the top 16 most likely teams to win the tournament by virtue of crashing out early: Dutch giants Ajax are naturally a massive club, as are Bundesliga outfit Eintracht Frankfurt and Kevin De Bruyne-led Napoli, who are managed by Antonio Conte.
Kicking things off as the least likely team to win the big-eared trophy are Atalanta, who, despite still having some mathematical chance of progressing, have been handed a 0% chance by Opta following their crushing 6-1 defeat to Bayern Munich.
Premier League strugglers Tottenham (0.11%) are 15th favourites, with their equally-humbling 5-2 loss at Atletico extending interim manager Igor Tudor’s winless start in his position to four matches. Sporting CP, meanwhile, have done well to make it this far, but find themselves chasing a two-goal deficit against Norwegian minnows Bodo/Glimt.
Despite being 1-0 up against Liverpool after the first leg, Galatasaray must still travel to Anfield to hold on to their lead, where they will have no away supporters to cheer them on. That’s why they still rank lowly in terms of winners’ odds – as do Chelsea, who are 5-2 down to reigning champions PSG.
Bayer Leverkusen are doing well to stay in the competition following their summer fire sale, which came about courtesy of Xabi Alonso’s departure and saw the likes of Florian Wirtz also leave. After holding Arsenal to a 1-1 draw on Wednesday night, they’ve been given winning odds of just 1.22 per cent.
Supercomputer Predicts 2025-26 Champions League Winners Odds: 16-11
Rank
Team
Chance of Winning (%)
16.
Atalanta
0.00%
15.
Tottenham
0.11%
14.
Sporting CP
0.45%
13.
Galatasaray
0.77%
12.
Chelsea
0.79%
11.
Bayer Leverkusen
1.22%
Supercomputer Predicts 2025-26 Champions League Winners Odds: 10-6
Manchester City have beaten Real Madrid by four goals as recently as 2023, en route to their historic treble. But after falling to a 3-0 deficit at the Bernabeu against a Los Blancos side that didn’t have Jude Bellingham or Kylian Mbappe among their ranks, their chances of replicating that 4-0 thumping, and then going all the way, are as little as 1.54%.
Arctic Circle underdogs, Bodo/Glimt, may be one step into the quarter-finals, but their chances of winning the lot remain low. Newcastle United (3.30%) are given a bigger chance than some massive European clubs, including Man City, despite the Magpies finishing outside the automatic progression spots. They’re followed by England’s most successful club, Liverpool, who look to still be enduring something of a hangover from last season’s successes.
Atletico Madrid, who are one of the biggest clubs not to win the competition, just missed out on a spot in the top five. They’ve been given a 5.49% chance of winning the trophy after brushing Tottenham aside.
Supercomputer Predicts 2025-26 Champions League Winners Odds: 10-6
Rank
Team
Chance of Winning (%)
10.
Manchester City
1.54%
9.
Bodo/Glimt
1.65%
8.
Newcastle United
3.30%
7.
Liverpool
5.21%
6.
Atletico Madrid
5.49%
Supercomputer Predicts 2025-26 Champions League Winners Odds: 5-1
Although they are the most successful side in the competition’s history, some of Real Madrid’s star power has faded of late, which means they are only fifth favourites this time around. PSG are the fourth favourites to retain their title.
Hansi Flick’s Barcelona side are in third as they chase the trophy after a semi-final finish last term. They are followed by Bayern Munich – a team who finished second in the league phase thanks to Harry Kane’s firepower up top and Lennart Karl’s teenage brilliance behind him.
That leaves Mikel Arteta’s Arsenal side at the top of the tree, with the Opta supercomputer seeing them win the trophy in many of its simulations as the Gunners aim to end their half-decade wait without silverware. The Gunners became the 13th team in Champions League history to end the group stage/league phase with a flawless record and Opta believes they have a 26.05% of winning their first-ever title in Europe.
Supercomputer Predicts 2025-26 Champions League Winners Odds: 5-1
Rank
Team
Chance of Winning
5.
Real Madrid
7.62%
4.
Paris Saint-Germain
8.56%
3.
Barcelona
11.51%
2.
Bayern Munich
25.73%
1.
Arsenal
26.05%
All data per Opta’s supercomputer – correct as of 11/03/2026.