Why James Justin’s praise of Noah Okafor is backed by the data at Leeds United
James Justin believes Noah Okafor can win games for Leeds United by himself, and recent results suggest that is already happening.
Okafor has scored three goals in his last two matches, decisive contributions in wins over Man United and Wolves that have pushed Leeds towards Premier League safety. Joe Cole thinks Leeds have survived.
Speaking after the 3-0 victory over Wolves in quotes published by Leeds Live on Tuesday, Justin pointed to something more fundamental behind that form.
“You can see in training every day what kind of player he is. If he gets the ball in his feet, he’s so unpredictable, and obviously can win games for us,” Justin said.
A huge week for Okafor!
The key question is whether that view holds up beyond a short run of form. The numbers suggest it does.
Noah Okafor’s output shows more than just a hot streak
Okafor has scored seven Premier League goals in 1,449 minutes this season, along with one assist. That equates to 0.43 goals per 90 minutes, a strong return for a player who has not been a constant starter.
His underlying numbers reinforce that output. Okafor has generated 4.74 non-penalty expected goals, meaning he is outperforming the chances he has been given rather than relying on unsustainable volume.
He is also selective. Okafor averages just 1.93 shots per 90 minutes, yet converts 22.6 percent of those attempts. That level of efficiency places him among the more clinical forwards operating outside the league’s highest-minute players.
That profile aligns closely with Justin’s description. Okafor does not need repeated touches or high volume to influence a game. When he receives the ball, the end product is often decisive.
Photo by Brett Patzke – WWFC/Wolves via Getty Images
Leeds’ alternative targets make the comparison clearer
Leeds explored other Premier League-proven attacking options before signing Okafor, including Everton striker Beto who was a £26m target for Leeds and experienced forwards like Callum Wilson.
Those comparisons now help frame Okafor’s impact more clearly. Wilson, for example, is producing at a similar rate of around 0.43 goals per 90 this season, but requires significantly more shots and converts at a lower rate.
Beto, another comparable profile, offers a slightly higher goals-per-90 return but does so through higher shot volume rather than efficiency. Okafor’s output comes from fewer attempts, which is particularly valuable in a team that does not dominate possession.
This is where the £18m fee begins to stand out. Leeds did not secure a volume striker, they signed a forward capable of delivering high-value moments with limited opportunities.
Recent results underline Justin’s point
The past week has provided the clearest evidence. Okafor scored twice in a 2-1 win at Manchester United on April 13, then added another goal five days later in the 3-0 victory over Wolves.
Those three goals have come in matches that directly shifted Leeds’ position in the relegation battle. The context matters as much as the numbers.
Justin’s assessment now reads less like internal encouragement and more like an accurate description of what Leeds have signed. Okafor is not simply in form, he is delivering outcomes.
For a team fighting to stay in the Premier League, that distinction is everything.